BRAIN DRAIN, RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA
- Chukwuemeka Mokwe
- Sep 9, 2024
- 19 min read
Updated: Feb 5
ABSTRACT
From passport offices to embassies and then into international airports, the journey out of Nigeria in search of greener pastures is a trend among Nigerians that has stood the test of time. Many are willingly jumping on flights to any foreign country regardless of whether the pastures there are greener; some are borrowing money or giving up their properties for sale for this purpose; and others are risking their lives crossing the Nigerian border illegally. These ferocious efforts to migrate suggest that the brain drain in Nigeria must be influenced by more than a bandwagon effect and one cannot help but wonder what forces are behind it.
Indeed, the Brain drain in Nigeria has grown beyond its universal definition to encompass the interplay and influence of the rural-urban migration in Nigeria. Through extensive research, literature review, data analysis, and graphical illustrations this article thoroughly explores the state of brain drain and rural-urban migration in Nigeria and the unifying theoretical frameworks explaining their dynamics and interrelationship. It further establishes their causes and economic implications using Lagos city as a case study of the implications of rural-urban migration. Solutions employing mitigating initiatives. international case studies, policies, and models were recommended to combat the brain drain and rural-urban migration in Nigeria.
Keywords: Brain drain, Rural-urban migration, Nigeria, push and pull factors.
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Migration has been an innate behaviour of mankind since time memorial and has largely contributed to the evolution of civilizations. Whether it is casual visits or trips, migration from rural to urban areas, or regional or inter-state migration, people tend to travel the world to experience different cultures and societies, and workers migrate temporarily to other regions or countries to acquire advanced skills or broaden their intellectual and professional horizons. As a matter of fact, mobility of labour is a necessary component of trade, economic development and globalization.
However, recent data and stats in the last decade reveal a growing trend of increase in local rural-urban and interstate migrants with no intention to return to their place of origin. According to the World Health Organization (WHO 2020), a whopping 44.5% out of more than 70% of international medical graduates from sub-Saharan African countries who were practising in the United States (US) between 2005 - 2015 are from Nigeria.
This article, therefore, aims to explore and combat the catalysts and economic implications behind the increasing trend, volume, and urgency that has become of the emigration from low-middle-income countries LMICs to high-income countries (HICs) or local migration from rural to urban areas within the Nigerian context.
2.0 CONCEPTUALIZATION OF BRAIN DRAIN AND RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION
Rural-urban migration is the movement of people from rural areas to urban areas. This results in population concentration which affects the population density and distribution in various areas. There is a domino effect between rural-urban migration and urbanization in that the migration of people from rural to urban areas results in the expansion of cities to accommodate the influx which in turn attracts more rural dwellers and the cycle continues. The United Nations (UN) estimates that by 2050, two-thirds of the world’s population will be urbanized, a projection from the less than one-third living in cities in 1950. Bringing this analysis home, Lagos state is by and large the elephant in the room, having currently amassed a population of about 14.86 million from 1.3 million in the past 50 years (Population stat 2024). The limited resources available to match this explosive city population is one of the factors that are encouraging emigration outside the country.
Figure 1
Brain drain is said to occur when many highly trained individuals or middle-class citizens of a country migrate from their country of origin to a foreign country, with emphasis on ‘the emigration of skilled professionals’. The current rate of brain drain in Nigeria, however, is such that virtually everyone, professionals and non-professionals, wants to leave the country.
The brain drain in Nigeria can be traced back to the economic downturn and political instability in the 1980s that triggered a significant rise in the emigration of Nigerians. This trend of negative net migration, where more professionals are leaving than entering, has persisted from 2000 to 2023 (figure 2) and is now occurring at an unprecedented rate and magnitude in the country (Sasau 2023).
Figure 2
Brain drain in Nigeria is popularly captured by the buzzword ‘Japa syndrome’. Japa is a Yoruba word that describes the urgent flight or flee from a situation or place. The clamour and desperation for optimal living conditions are forcing a great number to wait in line at immigration offices for lengthy periods to get foreign passports or visas out of the country, even resorting to illegal means of migration by travelling dangerous routes. Data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) report shows that the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) estimated about 1200 Nigerians have died while trying to cross the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea in 2023 (John 2023).
3.0 A UNIFYING THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF BRAIN-DRAIN AND RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION
Through the analysis and integration of various migration theories-- the world systems, resource curse, and push-pull theories-- the forces, dynamics and characteristics of brain drain and rural-urban migration can be reconciled, throwing more light on the pattern and driving factors of these forms migration and creating room for mitigation (Temilade & Adejumoke 2024).
3.1 World-Systems Theory
The world systems theory perceives migration as the aftermath of global economic systems and inequalities. It is of the opinion that because the order of brain drain and rural-urban migration is usually from peripheral regions (e.g., rural areas and LMICs) to core regions (e.g., urban centres or developed countries) as peripheral regions are exploited for their labour and resources (Temilade & Adejumoke 2024).
Economic Exploitation: When skilled individuals and rural inhabitants move towards core regions to seek better opportunities because of the economic marginalization of peripheral regions, a vicious cycle of dependency and underdevelopment is generated in their places of origin.
Globalization and Urbanization: Given, that global economic integration and urbanization processes influence migration patterns, the World-systems theory suggests that brain drain and rural-urban migration feed on man’s impulse to respond to a gratifying environment. Granted, skilled professionals move to countries with advanced economies, while rural inhabitants migrate to burgeoning urban centres within their own countries.
3.2 The Resource Curse Theory
The resource curse theory is also known as the paradox of plenty or the poverty paradox. According to Smith et al (2021), it is ‘‘the phenomenon whereby countries with an abundance of natural resources (such as fossil fuels and certain minerals) have less economic growth, less democracy, or worse development outcomes than countries with fewer natural resources’’.
Nigeria has a nominal GDP of $207.11 billion and a per capita income of $1,401, making it the second-largest economy in Africa (Salami, 2011). With over 220 million citizens and a significant ‘youth bulge’, Nigeria is already the most populous country in Africa. By 2040, 100 million more individuals under the age of 35 are expected to push Nigeria into third place on the global population list (Adhikari et al. 2021). However, data from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) begs to differ, ranking Nigeria 163rd out of 193 countries in terms of the human development index. A good example of a resource curse is the thin line between Nigeria’s ego as the ‘giant of Africa’ and the internal multisectoral crisis that have befallen the nation and are stirring panic among the masses. Appreciation of the resource curse theory makes one aware of just how much the Nigerian government have failed to effectively arrest the national and economic strife that are rapidly compromising and turning Nigeria’s surplus assets and resources into elements of diminishing returns.
3.3 Push-Pull Theory
The push-pull theory posits that migration is driven by factors that push individuals away from their current location and factors that pull them towards a new location.
Figure 3: Conceptual Framework on Brain Drain and Rural-Urban Migration
· Pull factors: From the assessment of the pull factors common to both brain drain and rural and urban migration in the chart (figure 3), the inherent migration of human capital can be associated with the persuasion and influence of good governance, security, adequate infrastructural facilities, convenient and conducive working conditions, job opportunities, good healthcare services/delivery and good educational facilities.
· Push Factors: On the other hand, Wilfred and Iheonu (2021) opined that the push factors that drive away skilled labour from their home country are bad governance and corruption, insecurity, inadequate infrastructure, bad working conditions, remoteness/isolation, poverty, unemployment, poor medical services/ delivery and poor educational delivery. Rural-urban migrants face additional push factors including degradation of soil and vegetation, drought, poor agricultural mechanization and productivity, and poor living conditions in rural areas.
4.0 CAUSES (PUSH AND PULL FACTORS) OF BRAIN DRAIN AND RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN NIGERIA
A survey by the African Polling Institute conducted in 2022 reveals that about 70% of Nigerians aged 18 - 35 would leave the country given the opportunity. This figure is a significant increase from 2019 when 39% of Nigerians across all age groups expressed a strong desire to leave the country (Liu 2023).
According to the Push-pull theory, the interaction of suboptimal and unfavourable sociocultural, economic, and environmental factors that propagate a wide range of challenges for Nigerians are the driving factors common to both brain drain and rural-urban migration.
This complex relationship, coupled with compound national problems like insurgency, endemic corruption, incompetent leadership, insecurity, and political crisis underscoring the current pandemonious state of Nigeria, are the major causes and motivation behind the migration within and out of the country.
i. Failing Educational System: Imagine an educational system where, despite your stellar academic performance, the duration of your training is uncertain, clinging onto the whims and caprices of perennial industrial strikes (figure 4) that have been used to persuade cooperation of the Nigerian government in the revitalization of the nation’s educational sector.
Figure 4: ASUU Strike Chart (1999 – 2022)
If you are offered an opportunity to study on scholarship in another country with far better academic facilities, programs, and regulations, what would be your choice?
The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia are major countries of destination for many Nigerian students. The UK's Higher Education Statistics Agency reaffirms this, reporting the number of migrant Nigerian students doubled from 13,020 in the 2019/2020 academic session to 21,305 in the 2020/2021 session (Bailey 2022).
The education of the people has a ripple effect on the performance or underperformance of the workforce of any nation. However, the poor investment in Nigeria’s higher education, understaffed schools, and unavailable/unaccommodating resources that overburden the educational sector across rural and urban areas are indicators that the current Nigerian educational system had long started weighing in favour of an underperforming future workforce (Emmanuel 2012 and Fojana 2013), contributing to the cycle of reproducing inexperienced labour force by an inadequate system.
ii. High Rate of Unemployment: The increasing unemployment rate in the Nigeria workspace-- failure to engage and empower the annual turnout of graduates by Nigerian Universities and Polytechnics is one of the major push factors contributing to the brain drain in the country. Eze (2022) rightly captured the scenario in her article while referring to the menial jobs educated graduates and post-graduates take up as disguised forms of unemployment and underemployment:
‘‘It is an open secret to see graduates and postgraduates in the streets of Nigeria hawking, riding keke or Okada (motorbike) to earn a living off a meal a day.’’
The ever-increasing trend of unemployment in Nigeria since 2003, according to Stats from the World Bank curated in Figure 6 (Temilade and Adejumoke 2024), is a profound index at the reason Nigerians— urban and rural dwellers— are seeking available and rewarding jobs and career fulfilment in local or foreign cities.
Figure 5
iii. Poor standard of living and Poverty: As a result of the depreciating naira currency which was trading at N230/1USD on the parallel market in 2015, N800/1USD in 2022, and now an exorbitant N1550/1USD in 2024— more than 248% five-years depreciation according to Sulaimon (2021) — many-a-Nigerian are eager to travel abroad and earn foreign currency.
The connection between the poor standard of living and brain drain in Nigeria is further intensified by consequent hyperinflation in the prices of commodities and services, high cost of living, the disproportional minimum wage of the average Nigerian, and the wide income gap between rural and urban areas.
The interaction of these economic indices has forced many Nigerians to seek greener pastures abroad and left more than 75% still resident Nigerians living below a dollar a day unable to afford basic needs and struggling with yet another significant cause of brain drain in Nigeria, poverty. As the saying goes, the middle class is an illness away from poverty in Nigeria.
iv. Poor Investment and inadequate Health Facilities: Research, on the one hand, shows there are not up to half of the over 80,000 doctors registered with the Medical and Dental Council of Nigeria that are still practising in Nigeria. On the other hand, records from the UK Nursing and Midwifery Council reveal an exponential increase in the number of immigrant Nigerian nurses and midwives from 56 in 2018 to 3010 in 2022. The same trend is depicted in an analysis by the General Medical Council projecting the increasing number of doctors that leave Nigeria to practice in the UK preceding and after the COVID pandemic (Lawal et al 2022).
These figures throw light on the abnormal doctor-to-patient ratio (1:10,000) reported by the Nigeria Medical Association (NMA) which is above the recommended WHO standard (1:600) and the limited number of doctors produced by medical institutions in Nigeria to fill this gap (Adejoror 2022). This speaks volumes of the absence of interventions by the Nigerian government to address the age-long decadence in the medical sector, create an enabling medical environment, and provide adequate health infrastructure and equipment. Rural dwellers at the bottom of the food chain in the distribution of healthcare in Nigeria are the major victims of this challenge and tend to migrate to urban areas for quality health services.
v. Insecurity: The Lekki massacre in Lagos on 20 October 2020 where the Nigerian Army officers reportedly opened fire on peaceful protesters during the endSARS protest not only stirred a sense of political decline among Nigerians and deep distrust in the Nigerian democratic government and armed forces to protect lives and properties, but also justified the massive exodus of Nigerians at the time and the still lingering yearning to leave the country (Liu 2023). Just between January and July 2020, more than 1126 habitants in villages across several states in northwest and north central Nigeria were killed from attacks by bandits (Amnesty International 2020). This event, coupled with unbearable generational cases of murder, fraud, abduction, and violence like the killings by Boko haram terrorists, attacks and kidnapping by gunmen, are push factors instigating the urban migration and emigration of Nigerians in search of sanity, security and safety.
vi. Endemic Corruption: ‘Four years ago, one of my very wealthy friends began to invest his money abroad. I disagreed with him and urged him to rethink his actions in the interest of his country (Nigeria).
He blamed his action on policy inconsistencies and shenanigans of interest groups.’’
“That friend has been taunting me in the past few days, saying he warned me and that he has been proven right”
In response to the unfounded allegations by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority revolving around the newly established Dangote oil refinery in Lagos— Aliko Dangote, a Nigerian business mogul popularly recognized as the richest man in Africa— made this statement which is arguably one of the most practical and realistic evidence of the causative effect of corruption on brain drain in Nigeria.
The powerful connection between the deep-rooted corruption in Nigeria and the brain drain can be seen in the Transparency International (TI) study by Ojo et al (2011) that reported a Corruption Perceptions Index for 2020 where Nigeria was placed 149th out of 180 nations. Corrupt practices cut across the various economic sectors and sociopolitical hierarchy in Nigeria not limited to bribery, nepotism, money laundering and embezzlement (Ebeye and Lee 2023).
5.0 IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Some impacts of brain drain and rural-urban migration are beneficial as high-skill emigration can encourage business, investment, and intellectual interchange. If emigrants return, it may offer a pool of top-notch human capital in rural areas and a lucrative source of remittances to the country of origin. Nevertheless, there are equally negative impacts of rural-urban migration and brain drain on the Nigerian economy.
5.1 Economic Implications of Rural-Urban Migration in Nigeria: Lagos State as a Case Study
Lagos is predicted to be one of the top three most populated cities in the world with a potential population increase to 24.4 million people by 2035 and double by 2050 (Population Stat 2024). The constant rural-urban migration to Lagos from the North and other parts of Nigeria has overstretched and exhausted the limited resources and infrastructure available in the state, subjecting a large population of the inhabitants to poverty. One might argue that immigration to Lagos generates adequate labour for industrialization and production; however, the unchecked rate of immigration has more tendency for overcrowding, traffic congestion, and unemployment than it does for economic growth. As a matter of fact, 66% of the population of Lagos live in slums earning the city the title “mega-city of slums”. The slum of Makoko for instance has about 100,000 people and is rife with crime and unconducive for habitation (Population Stat 2024). This is a similar scenario across urban areas in Nigeria frequented and domiciled by rural migrants seeking a better quality of life.
Deserted rural areas, on the other hand, are left to suffer the aftermath of the depopulation of their vibrant and skilled human resources: the drastic reduction in agricultural output and its negative effect on food security, and the standard of living of village communities.
5.2 Economic Implications of Brain Drain in Nigeria
i. Economic Decline: According to the study by Temilade and Adejumoke (2024), brain drain and rural-urban migration are one of the forces behind the negative net budgetary effect and decreased productivity in organisations, and unstable growth of the Nigerian economy since 2003 as portrayed by World Bank (figure 9). When business moguls and professionals decision leave, the amount of taxes that would have been credited to the home nation dissipates (Chiswick & Miller, 2015).
Figure 9
ii. Economic inequality: Brain drain increases economic inequality by enriching HICs over LMICs. Having suffered losses of almost $2 billion since 2010 from the exodus of qualified physicians, Nigeria and other African nations are challenged with accounting for and recovering estimated costs from $21,000 to $51,000 invested in subsidizing the training of a medical practitioner. Meanwhile destination HICs like the UK boast of 10% of its physicians from African countries saving the country an estimated $2.7 billion in costs (Egbetunde, 2010).
iii. Tourism and Remittances from the Nigerian Diaspora: The silver lining to brain drain is the remittances that are sent home by emigrants and their beneficial impact on Nigeria’s fiscal balance. The Nigerian diaspora sent home a sizable $25 billion in 2019, which is the same as 5% of Nigeria's GDP (Ratha 2011). According to Adhikera et al. (2021), the total amount of remittances received by Nigeria was four times more than the total amount of Official Development Assistance (ODA) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Moreover, Nigerian expatriates act as cultural ambassadors in foreign countries by promoting Nigeria as a tourist destination or returning home to visit family and friends and contributing significantly to the local economy through their spending on accommodation, transportation, and various services.
6.0 RECOMMENDATION FOR SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Economic development and progress have continuously been linked to human capital (Berger, 2022). Therefore, its scarcity is a major factor in developing nations' struggles with underdevelopment and poverty. To address the massive urban-rural migration and brain drain in Nigeria, the root causes must be first tackled:
6.1 Drawing Insights from Case Studies, Policies, and Models
A. Outsmarting and Reversing the Order of Pull Factors; To attract back her students and college graduates who were fleeing the country due to the poor quality of education and low wages, the Taiwan government created the Hinschu Science-based Industrial Park in 1980 after learning that most of its local talents were relocating to Silicon Valley and other technological innovation hotspots in the United States. The government’s solution led to over 50,000 Taiwanese returning from abroad between 1985 and 1990 BusinessDay (2021).
For the Nigerian government to counteract the brain drain and urban rural-urban migration in Nigeria there must be active efforts to replicate the friendly socioeconomic and environmental pull factors in foreign countries including promoting skills development, vocational training and job-creating programs and establishing infrastructure, incentives, investment and reform where necessary across sectors and industries in the country: healthcare, agriculture, technology, education, electricity, entrepreneurship, economic stability, and security. Additionally, initiatives should focus on regaining citizens’ faith in the country’s democracy and the rule of law.
B. From Brain Drain to Brain Gain: In China for example, the emigrants have played a pivotal role in expanding Chinese capital globally, making substantial investments in industries like agriculture, mining, and retail within the country, diversifying the country's labour force, and addressing critical gaps in various sectors hindering economic growth and development. This development stemmed from successful efforts of the Chinese government to attract skilled professionals and students of Chinese descent back to China have been successful, aiding in the retention of talent and expertise (Speelman 2022).
This is a compelling example for Nigeria to engage the Nigerian diaspora in national development and encourage initiatives that promote diaspora investments, philanthropy, and knowledge transfer.
C. Re-evaluating the educational system in Nigeria: In the Netherlands, most primary schools use a bilingual system of education (van Mamerem, 2022). While they give credence to foreign languages, they still emphasize full fluency in the Dutch language. This obliterates language barriers and ensures the furtherance of the basic tenets of Dutch culture. Aware of the necessary role of language for the expression and creativity of students in primary, secondary and tertiary educational institutions across Nigeria, Nwobodo (2022) proposed a system similar to the Netherlands’ in his article for CIPM's national essay competition where we prioritize the use of our local language over English in schools across urban and rural areas. This approach not only encourages active learning and creativity in students but also removes the language barrier between rural areas and English-speaking urban areas.
D. Adopting Effective Policies: The Nigerian government have failed to implement policies and initiatives to address urban immigration and emigration to foreign countries in Nigeria. A good attempt was the bill of the Medical and Dental Practitioners Act which required Nigeria-trained medical or dental practitioners to practice in Nigeria for a minimum of five years before obtaining a full license.
However, more feasible policies like the Global Skill Partnership can be implemented. A bilateral agreement between the country of origin and the country of destination concerning labour migration is referred to as a Global Skill Partnership. In this agreement, the country of origin agrees to train people in skills that are urgently needed in both the home country and the country to which they are moving. The "home" route is taken by some of these trainees, who want to stay in their home nation and develop its human capital, while the "away" track is taken by those who want to move to the target nation. The training is supported by technology, funding, and larger system assistance from the destination countries. In exchange, it receives immigrants who have the knowledge and abilities needed to make a substantial contribution and assimilate quickly.
The major goal is to increase the global pool of skilled workers while ensuring that some of them stay in their home countries, thus addressing the problem of brain drain. Additionally, it creates a constant flow of funding for improving training programmes and overall systems, compensating origin nations for generating skilled workers who service global markets. As noted by Adikhari et al (2021), Nigeria can build Global Skill Partnerships with a variety of industries and destinations, particularly in the fields of healthcare, finance, skilled trades, and technology.
Other measures include restricting international hiring, taxing highly skilled emigrants, and establishing compensation systems where governments of the destination country make payments to the governments of the origin country (Bhagwati & Rodriguez 1976).
7.0 CONCLUSION
The brain drain and rural-urban migration in Nigeria reflect a complex interplay of economic, political, and security challenges that drive citizens to seek better opportunities abroad. This phenomenon has significant economic, social, and cultural implications for the nation and calls for balanced regional development, improved working conditions, diaspora engagement, and sustainable urban planning crucial for achieving sustainable economic development. Adopting the suggestions made in this essay by establishing a sustainable environment in Nigeria that favours staying over leaving the country is a step forward in reversing the existing trend.
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